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Risk analysis

Risk analysis is about identifying what could go wrong, assessing likelihood and consequence, and prioritizing the risks that require the most attention. A risk matrix provides a clear overview of risk levels. For high-priority or complex risks, the analysis can then be taken further with a Bowtie diagram that visualizes causes, consequences, and the barriers that prevent or mitigate the event.

Bowtie methodology

Bowtie is an established method for analysing and visualising risk. By clearly showing causes, consequences and the barriers designed to prevent or mitigate an unwanted event, complex risks become easier to understand, communicate and manage.

The Bowtie method is described in IEC 31010 – Risk management: Risk assessment techniques and is widely used for visualising risk pathways and the barriers that prevent or mitigate unwanted events. The Energy Institute and Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) have also published dedicated international guidance on Bowtie analysis and barrier management.

The Energy Institute explores Bowtie methodology in Bow ties in risk management: A concept book for process safety. Learn more

Bowtie can also be used to analyse and visualise cybersecurity and information security risks. ISO/IEC 27005 provides guidance on managing information security risks and aligns with the broader risk management principles of ISO 31000.

Bowtie example: spread of the Coronavirus

The Bowtie method can be applied to practically all types of risks. As an example, let’s look at the diagram below that shows how the spread of the Coronavirus can affect an organization. The dark blue box in the middle represents the hazard, in this case the Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), which describes the circumstances of the danger. The orange circle represents the unwanted event you prefer will not take place in your organization, in this example it means that an employee contracts COVID-19. (Click on image to enlarge)

The leftmost boxes in the diagram (light blue) represent potential causes of the unwanted event occurring. To the right of each cause we see a series of preventive barriers that are intended to prevent that the corresponding cause leads to the unwanted event taking place, e.g. measures put in place to avoid the undesirable. On the farthest right of the diagram we see possible consequences (the red boxes) of the unwanted event occurring. To the left of each consequence we see a number of mitigating barriers that are designed to mitigate or limit the impact of the corresponding consequence. Altogether, we have a clear visual representation that provides a comprehensive picture of a complex situation with high information density.

Get started quickly with templates

Bowtie360 makes it easy to reuse effective risk analyses. You can start from an existing template, copy an existing Bowtie, or create a new analysis from scratch.

Once you have created a strong Bowtie, you can save it as your own template and share it with others across the organisation. Over time, this allows you to build a shared library of proven risk analyses for different operations and risk scenarios.

This saves time, reduces duplicated work, and helps create a more consistent approach to risk management. All templates are fully editable and can be adapted to fit the specific operation or risk.

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